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Market update: USD’s GDP in focus

Note: we are writing this article at 11.00pm (Paris time)right after market opening.

Here is the interesting news this to trade:

Monday

14:00 USD Existing Home Sales (MAY) Low 5.23M 5.04M
Records sales of previously owned homes in the United States.

This news can’t be traded ahead. However, if the released number is superior or equal to 0.4, we can expect a 40 to 70-Pip move in the direction of the ACTUAL number. The pairs to trade in priority are: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZD USD and AUDUSD.

Tuesday

07:00 EUR Markit France Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) Low 49.4
07:00 EUR Markit France Services PMI (JUN P) Low 52.8
07:00 EUR Markit France Composite PMI (JUN P) Low 52
07:30 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) Medium 51.1
07:30 EUR Markit Germany Services PMI (JUN P) Medium 53
07:30 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JUN P) Medium 52.6
08:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUN P) Medium 52.2
08:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JUN P) Medium 53.8
08:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JUN P) Medium 53.6

Due to the Greece-related issue, it will be preferable not to trade EUR pairs this week.

Wednesday

06:45 EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F) Low 0.6%
06:45 EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q F) Low 0.7%
08:00 EUR German IFO – Business Climate (JUN) Medium 108.5
08:00 EUR German IFO – Current Assessment (JUN) Medium 114.3
08:00 EUR German IFO – Expectations (JUN) Medium 103

Once again, beware to Greece-related decisions and conferences.

Thursday


12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (1Q T) Medium -0.3% -0.7%

This news can be traded ahead. From Monday to Thursday, we are looking for long call trade on USDCAD or short put trades on AUDUSD and GBPUSD first. We have to be careful on USDJPY for prices drop sharply last Friday and are now under the Ichimoku cloud:

USDJPYH1

The market opened with a bullish gap. since most of the gaps are in general covered, better wait for the gap to be covered before entering a bullish trade. A better signal would be the crossing of the MA Chinkou above the price. The first long objective would be 123.235.

From now on, we will look for bull signals validated by candlesticks or momentum indicators, with 30 to 60-Pip targets. Currency pairs to trade in priority are USDCAD, USDJPY (long), and AUDUSD and GBPUSD (short). Every trade should be closed according to the method of your choice and your aggressivity:

-a SAR reversal;

-the mid-level of the Bollinger Bands is hit,

-MACD or stochastic crossing.

23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) High 0.6%

You should close every trade on USDJPY for this news may impact the market, even shortly.

Friday

Nothing special on Friday so be cautious for volatility is often experienced on Fridays especially on major indexes and commodities.

Conclusion: focus on USD prenews (GDP) and avoid EUR.

Next market update is to be set on next Wednesday.

Forex Market Updates

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