This week is to be an exciting one for much interesting news will be released. However, when reading the economic calendar, is can be easy to get lost in confusion for the layman. Indeed, before entering the news trading arena, better know what kind of news is worth trading instead of wasting time and precious ressources for nothing. Below is this week’s calendar within Bold the news that may really impact the market (New York time):
|Mon Jun 15||3:00am||EUR||German Buba President Weidmann Speaks|
|CHF||Retail Sales y/y||-2.2%||-2.8%|
|3:30am||AUD||RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks|
|8:30am||CAD||Manufacturing Sales m/m||-1.3%||2.9%|
|USD||Empire State Manufacturing Index||5.8||3.1|
|9:00am||EUR||ECB President Draghi Speaks|
|9:15am||USD||Capacity Utilization Rate||78.3%||78.2%|
|USD||Industrial Production m/m||0.2%||-0.3%|
|10:00am||USD||NAHB Housing Market Index||56||54|
|4:00pm||USD||TIC Long-Term Purchases||17.6B|
|5:55pm||AUD||RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks|
|9:30pm||AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|AUD||New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m||-1.5%|
|Tue Jun 16||1:45am||CHF||SECO Economic Forecasts|
|2:00am||EUR||German Final CPI m/m||0.1%||0.1%|
|GBP||PPI Input m/m||0.7%||0.4%|
|GBP||Core CPI y/y||1.0%||0.8%|
|GBP||PPI Output m/m||0.1%||0.1%|
|Tentative||EUR||European Court of Justice Ruling|
|5:00am||EUR||German ZEW Economic Sentiment||37.5||41.9|
|EUR||ZEW Economic Sentiment||60.3||61.2|
|EUR||Employment Change q/q||0.1%||0.1%|
|8:30am||CAD||Foreign Securities Purchases||22.47B|
|9:30am||GBP||CB Leading Index m/m||0.2%|
|Tentative||NZD||GDT Price Index||-4.3%|
|8:30pm||AUD||MI Leading Index m/m||0.1%|
|17th-19th||CNY||Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y||10.4%|
|Wed Jun 17||4:00am||EUR||Italian Trade Balance||3.27B||4.06B|
|4:30am||GBP||Average Earnings Index 3m/y||2.5%||1.9%|
|GBP||Claimant Count Change||-12.5K||-6.5K|
|GBP||MPC Official Bank Rate Votes||0-0-9||0-0-9|
|GBP||MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes||0-0-9||0-0-9|
|5:00am||CHF||ZEW Economic Expectations||-0.1|
|EUR||Final CPI y/y||0.3%||0.3%|
|EUR||Final Core CPI y/y||0.9%||0.9%|
|Tentative||EUR||German 10-y Bond Auction||0.65|1.3|
|8:30am||CAD||Wholesale Sales m/m||0.3%||0.8%|
|10:30am||USD||Crude Oil Inventories||-6.8M|
|2:00pm||USD||FOMC Economic Projections|
|USD||Federal Funds Rate||<0.25%||<0.25%|
|2:30pm||USD||FOMC Press Conference|
|7:05pm||GBP||BOE Quarterly Bulletin|
|Thu Jun 18||12:30am||CHF||SNB Financial Stability Report|
|CHF||SNB Monetary Policy Assessment|
|CHF||SNB Press Conference|
|4:00am||EUR||ECB Economic Bulletin|
|4:30am||GBP||Retail Sales m/m||0.0%||1.2%|
|Tentative||EUR||Spanish 10-y Bond Auction||1.88|3.0|
|All Day||EUR||Eurogroup Meetings|
|USD||Core CPI m/m||0.2%||0.3%|
|10:00am||USD||Philly Fed Manufacturing Index||8.1||6.7|
|USD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.4%||0.7%|
|10:30am||USD||Natural Gas Storage||111B|
|Tentative||JPY||Monetary Policy Statement|
|Fri Jun 19||12:30am||JPY||All Industries Activity m/m||0.3%||-1.3%|
|2:00am||EUR||German PPI m/m||0.2%||0.1%|
|Tentative||JPY||BOJ Press Conference|
|4:30am||GBP||Public Sector Net Borrowing||10.2B||6.0B|
|All Day||EUR||ECOFIN Meetings|
|8:30am||CAD||Core CPI m/m||0.3%||0.1%|
|CAD||Core Retail Sales m/m||0.3%||0.5%|
|CAD||Retail Sales m/m||0.6%||0.7%|
Here is the news that is going to interest us for this week:
|08:30||GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY)||Low||-0.1%||1.2%|
Some calendars such as Daily Fx qualify this news as “low impact news”. Tis is actually a mistake for this news is one of the 6 news regarding the GBP currency that can be traded ahead of its release. The present deviation is more than enough to allow us to look for, from Monday to Thursday morning, short put trades, the GBP being likely to lose steam. The pair to trade will be GBPUSD.
A the time we are writing this article (11.pm Paris time), the GBPUSD pair opened with a small bearish gap:
However, as we can see with the Ichimoku indicator, the red MA Tenkan crossed upwards the blue MA Kijun. This is supposed to be a bullish signal, therefore better wait for another strong signal. Prices are likely to rise for a while before giving reliable bearish clues (significant candle or a momentum divergence (RSI, Stochastics…). When a convergence of strong bearish signals will be available, we will look for short trades of 20-40 Pips. An update of this penews will be made on Wednesday evening.
The other news can’t be traded ahead. However, here are some clues to trade them at their release:
-GBP CPI: if the deviation shows a minimum of 0.3 percent, this will be possible to enter a trade with a 50-Pip target.
-German ZEW Sentiment: if the deviation is superior or equal to 9, this will be possible to enter a trade with a 30-Pip objective.
-Fed Rates: if the released number =0, wait for the second candle to position in the same direction. If the deviation is +0.25 or -0.25, we can enter a trade with a 50 to 80 Pips target.
-NZD GDP: if deviation is over 0.3 percent, we can enter a trade in the direction of the move with a target of 40 Pips.
-USD Core CPI: if the deviation is at least 0.2, we can enter a trade with a 40-Pip target.
–CAD Core Retail Sales: if deviation is over 0.5 percent, we can enter a trade with a 50-Pip target.
-CAD Core CPI: if the released number is superior or equal to 0.3 percent, we can enter a trade with a 50-Pip target.
Conclusion: focus on te following pairs this week: GBPUSD; USDCAD, EURUSD.
A market update will be released on next wednesday evening.