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Deciphering news

  This week is to be an exciting one for much interesting news will be released. However, when reading the economic calendar, is can be easy to get lost in confusion for the layman. Indeed, before entering the news trading arena, better know what kind of news is worth trading instead of wasting time and precious ressources for nothing. Below is this week’s calendar within Bold the news that may really impact the market (New York time):

Mon Jun 15 3:00am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
3:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.1% -2.1%
CHF Retail Sales y/y -2.2% -2.8%
3:30am AUD RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
5:00am EUR Trade Balance 20.3B 19.7B
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.3% 2.9%
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.8 3.1
9:00am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3% 78.2%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -0.3%
10:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 56 54
4:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 17.6B
5:55pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
9:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -1.5%
Tue Jun 16 1:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
4:30am GBP   CPI y/y 0.1% -0.1%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.7% 0.4%
GBP RPI y/y 1.1% 0.9%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.0% 0.8%
GBP HPI y/y 10.2% 9.6%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.1%
Tentative EUR European Court of Justice Ruling
5:00am EUR   German ZEW Economic Sentiment 37.5 41.9
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 60.3 61.2
EUR Employment Change q/q 0.1% 0.1%
8:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 22.47B
USD Building Permits 1.11M 1.14M
USD Housing Starts 1.10M 1.14M
9:30am GBP CB Leading Index m/m 0.2%
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -4.3%
6:45pm NZD Current Account 0.23B -3.19B
7:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.17T -0.21T
8:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.1%
17th-19th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 10.4%
Wed Jun 17 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.27B 4.06B
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% 1.9%
GBP Claimant Count Change -12.5K -6.5K
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Unemployment Rate 5.5% 5.5%
5:00am CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -0.1
EUR Final CPI y/y 0.3% 0.3%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.9% 0.9%
Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0.65|1.3
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.3% 0.8%
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -6.8M
2:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD   Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
2:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference
6:45pm NZD   GDP q/q 0.6% 0.8%
7:05pm GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
9:30pm AUD RBA Bulletin
Thu Jun 18 12:30am CHF SNB Financial Stability Report
2:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.72B 2.86B
3:30am CHF Libor Rate -0.75% -0.75%
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
CHF SNB Press Conference
4:00am EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
4:30am GBP   Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.2%
5:15am EUR Targeted LTRO 97.8B
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 1.88|3.0
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
8:30am USD CPI m/m     0.5% 0.1%  
    USD   Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
USD Unemployment Claims 278K 279K
USD Current Account -116B -113B
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8.1 6.7
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.7%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 111B
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Fri Jun 19 12:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.3% -1.3%
2:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
4:00am EUR Current Account 18.1B 18.6B
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.2B 6.0B
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings          
  8:30am CAD   Core CPI m/m     0.3% 0.1%  
    CAD   Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.5%
CAD CPI m/m 0.4% -0.1%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.7%

Here is the news that is going to interest us for this week:

08:30   GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAY) Low   -0.1% 1.2%

  Some calendars such as Daily Fx qualify this news as “low impact news”. Tis is actually a mistake for this news is one of the 6 news regarding the GBP currency that can be traded ahead of its release. The present deviation is more than enough to allow us to look for, from Monday to Thursday morning, short put trades, the GBP being likely to lose steam. The pair to trade will be GBPUSD.

A the time we are writing this article (11.pm Paris time), the GBPUSD pair opened with a small bearish gap:

GBPUSDH1

  However, as we can see with the Ichimoku indicator, the red MA Tenkan crossed upwards the blue MA Kijun. This is supposed to be a bullish signal, therefore better wait for another strong signal. Prices are likely to rise for a while before giving reliable bearish clues (significant candle or a momentum divergence (RSI, Stochastics…). When a convergence of strong bearish signals will be available, we will look for short trades of 20-40 Pips. An update of this penews will be made on Wednesday evening.

The other news can’t be traded ahead. However, here are some clues to trade them at their release:

-GBP CPI: if the deviation shows a minimum of 0.3 percent, this will be possible to enter a trade with a 50-Pip target.

-German ZEW Sentiment: if the deviation is superior or equal to 9, this will be possible to enter a trade with a 30-Pip objective.

-Fed Rates: if the released number =0, wait for the second candle to position in the same direction. If the deviation is +0.25 or -0.25, we can enter a trade with a 50 to 80 Pips target.

-NZD GDP: if deviation is over 0.3 percent, we can enter a trade in the direction of the move with a target of 40 Pips.

-USD Core CPI: if the deviation is at least 0.2, we can enter a trade with a 40-Pip target.

CAD Core Retail Sales: if deviation is over 0.5 percent, we can enter a trade with a 50-Pip target.

-CAD Core CPI: if the released number is superior or equal to 0.3 percent, we can enter a trade with a 50-Pip target.

Conclusion: focus on te following pairs this week: GBPUSD; USDCAD, EURUSD.

A market update will be released on next wednesday evening.

 

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